Climate Simulations to Serve Local Community Planning: Modeling Climate Change in the Neponset River Watershed (Massachusetts)

Abstract

Our project is designed to unravel the complexities of climate change impacts within the Neponset River Watershed, employing sophisticated methods tailored specifically to this study domain. Through the integration of advanced simulation techniques and an innovative hindcast approach, we aim to generate crucial regional information that will significantly contribute to impactful climate research in the Neponset River Watershed.

At the core of our methodology is the utilization of regional weather/climate models such as Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) for 'time-slice' simulations. This approach involves leveraging boundary conditions generated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) model ensemble. Executed at resolutions of a few kilometers within the unique context of the Neponset River Watershed, this method will produce actionable climate information valuable for community-level climate mitigation and adaptation.

What sets our methodology apart is its departure from traditional statistical downscaling methods. By enforcing physical consistency among climate variables, we overcome limitations identified in the Greater Boston Research Advisory Group (GBRAG) report, offering a substantial improvement in accuracy and reliability for climate impact assessments tailored for the Neponset River Watershed.

To deepen our insights into model performance and its implications for high-impact weather events within the Neponset River Watershed, we propose a series of hindcast simulations by revisiting major historical events such as Nor’easters or 'bomb-cyclones' that occurred in January and March 2018. These simulations will be perturbed with anomalies induced by climate change in so-called storyline simulations, providing an understanding of how the same extreme events may unfold differently in an altered climate within the Neponset River Watershed.

Our project goes beyond mere scientific investigation, aiming to impact the Neponset community directly. Using extensive storyline simulations, we aim to effectively communicate climate risks, emphasizing the tangible implications of climate change on specific extreme weather events in the Neponset River Watershed. By incorporating cutting-edge simulation techniques and innovative methodologies in this study, our project stands at the forefront of climate impact research, significantly contributing to our collective understanding of the complex interactions between climate change and regional weather patterns in this crucial and unique geographical context.