Decision 2024
Michael Serazio (Lee Pellegrini)
Michael Serazio | Communication
Prognostication always feels like a fool’s errand; perhaps never more so than in (another) coin-flip election. Since I’m genuinely 50-50 on the fence of who I think will win, I decided to flip a coin and then rationalize post-facto. It came up Kamala Harris.
For 50 years, abortion was an animating, get-out-the-vote issue driving Republican voters; post-Dobbs, that political energy has basically reversed. In that, some irony: The most consequential policy victory for the first Trump administration—along with the tax cut bill—will be the factor that precludes a second term. Reproductive rights have been regularly cited as the reason for Democrats’ state and Congressional wins and, if Harris is victorious, that’s likely the narrative that emerges.
That said, remain suspicious of narratives: Elections are not social science experiments and the media often conflates correlation with causation, when myriad factors could influence definitively. Caveat stipulated, the Trump campaign’s alienation of female voters—not just against those who hold pro-choice views but a seeming-general, Vancian hostility to cultural rights—winds up delivering the White House to its first female occupant. That will, I suspect, matter more than democracy preservation in driving voters (too abstract, perhaps, as a campaign frame), though we should celebrate democracy preservation in equal measure.
Elections come and go, but accepting the peaceful transfer of power must endure. If that’s the stakes, hope the coin flip is right.
Masha Krupenkin (Lee Pellegrini)
Masha Krupenkin | Political Science
Even though Kamala Harris is clearly favored to win the popular vote, it is hard to determine which candidate will win the election. The Electoral College selects the president based on the popular vote in each state. Each state is granted a number of Electoral College votes by population. The Electoral College, like many things in the Constitution, was born from a compromise between different groups. Smaller states wanted to make sure their interests were not drowned out by the interests of more populous states, and Southern states were against the selection of a president by direct vote.
However, something peculiar has occurred over the last few decades. Even though the Republican Party has lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections, they were able to win the electoral vote in two of those seven elections.
So even in situations where it looks pretty clear who is going to win the popular vote, it can still be a toss-up as to who is going to win the Electoral College. Because of the way that electoral votes are spread out across the states, it is extremely unlikely that the Democratic nominee will lose the popular vote but still win the Electoral College. The outcome of the election hinges on a handful of voters in crucial swing states. And it is a real nail-biter of an election.
Gregory Fried (Lee Pellegrini)
Gregory Fried | Philosophy
If I were a prophet, fortune-teller, or political scientist, I might know who will win this election. Still, I can guess who will lose. Kamala Harris has evened the odds since Biden bowed out, with the advantages of widespread support for women’s reproductive rights and an (apparently) improved economy. But much will depend on getting out the vote, because there are few undecideds and the traditional Democratic base seems to be wavering, due to culture war issues and the Gaza war.
Donald Trump has the advantage of deep anxiety about the economy, immigration, government ineffectiveness, and global disorder, but he seems unable to articulate any coherent policies, relying ever more on a rhetoric of hate, divisiveness, resentment, and lawlessness that appeals only to his base.
If Harris wins, Trump will be cornered, facing prison and bankruptcy. He will have nothing to lose by claiming electoral fraud, inciting refusal by electoral boards and states to certify the votes, and encouraging violence among his most zealous supporters, as he has already done, and the country will drift further into polarization. If Trumps wins, by means fair or foul, he will do everything in his power to mimic the dictators around the world whom he so admires by tearing down the remaining guardrails of our constitutional republic, for “retribution” against all who oppose him and for his own vainglory, power, and enrichment.
So, whoever wins, the American people will be the loser, and the real winner will be Vladimir Putin.
Brian Bethune (Caitlin Cunningham)
Brian Bethune | Economics
Yale economist Ray Fair has done extensive research on the potential impact of the state of the economy on election outcomes, particularly presidential and congressional elections. His approach is to boil things down to the most important factors that have predictive power, both political and economic. Of course, there are many other random factors which can affect outcomes, such as a candidate’s “charisma” or other major events such as wars or natural disasters.
There are two political variables that turn out to be important: whether there is a Democratic or Republican incumbent, and whether a Democratic or Republican incumbent president is running again. For 2024 there is a Democratic incumbent, but the incumbent is not running again. A third political variable captures duration, defined as how many terms the Democratic party or the Republican party has been in the White House. For 2024, the duration variable is “one-term Democratic.”
There are three important economic variables. The annual growth rate of real GDP per capita in the first three quarters of 2024; the number of quarters under the current administration that annual real GDP per capita growth has exceeded 3.2 percent; and the annual growth rate of the GDP deflator during the current administration. Put simply, higher and more frequent growth has a positive impact on the share of the vote for the incumbent, while higher inflation is a negative for the incumbent. These three variables, based on estimates for the third quarter of 2024, are 2.4, 3, and 4.6 percent, respectively. Solid growth numbers are offset by the higher inflation for the incumbent Democratic share of the vote.
Plugging these economic values into the Fair model yields a Democratic share of the presidential vote of 49 percent. Given that third party candidates could receive roughly 2 percent of the popular vote, effectively, the model is predicting a toss-up: 49 percent to 49 percent, which is consistent with the recent public opinion polls.
This leaves the potential for “random factors” to have a disproportionate impact. Those would include recent hurricanes, the somewhat ambiguous incumbency factors of the two candidates that are running, and the relative “charismatic allure” of one candidate versus the other, which could swing the results by two to three percentage points either way.
Marc Landy (Lee Pellegrini)
Marc Landy | Political Science
It is impossible to predict the winner.
Polling is an art, not a science, and in this instance the pollsters’ art is not serving them well. In 2020 and 2024, they underpredicted the Trump vote. In 2022, they overpredicted how many seats the Republicans would win.
At this point, it is impossible to say who the undecideds are and—if they really exist—whether or not they will turn out. The key to the election is which side is better at turning out their less enthusiastic supporters.